Responding to Embargoes: A Pulse Model of Weapons Flow

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The purpose of this study is to model the dynamic flow of illicit small arms and how that flow changes due to embargoes. Understanding the complex network of small arms trade and how that flow changes, post implementation of embargoes, due to the implementation of embargoes is essential to developing effective international gun control policy. Building on prior research, this study is the first to use longitudinal network change models (stochastic actor-oriented models) to examine the effect embargoes have on illicit small arms trade. Using gun transfer data from United Nations Com-trade (1997-2010), the structural change in trade networks was examined for three periods—pre-embargo, during embargo, and 2 years post embargo. While the global model is informative, 3 regional egonetworks highlight the unique effects of embargoes. This study shows how multinational policy promotes the formation of indirect trade routes that circumvent trade restrictions.